Market seems to be attempting to rally from the low of 23816.
Now, 25400 is the key level on the Nifty( which was communicated earlier as well)… till the time it is taken out by markets – it’s better not to turn bullish. I think that should be our stance. Lets try not to get caught in the market gyrations- if that is what this is.
People who are very active and aggressive——-they are moving in at current levels assuming that markets have bottomed out at 23800 and we are headed to all time new highs.
The way I look at it- beyond 25400 on Nifty we should turn optimistic of markets being out of the woods. Till that time we should be gradually buying into Hybrid Category Funds. Within that space a well- strategy should be a function of risk profile and time horizon.
The way I am looking at it is – if this low holds( recently made 23816) and counter bounce also sustains above 25400, that would indicate that this market still has legs to go.
But in case , we turn around and the market tells us that this bounce is not working and we re-visit lower levels and break them- then it’s a case for lower ranges to be visited.
I only urge you to keep an open mind as things can go either way.
And if the optimistic scenario turns out then we would not like to miss this rally.
Nifty can see 29700 kinds of levels (a possibility) if we have seen the bottom of this correction at 23816 and bounce gets sustained beyond 25400 and markets decide that it still wants to go higher.
Probability of that happening. – right now as per me – it is 50-50.
More evidence needs to be on the table to make things clear and less noisy.
About Being Relevant to Markets-
This section is all about knowing and understanding the current texture of markets- the style which market is favouring & pockets which fund managers and smart money have started to look at.
There is randomness around its change and it follows no predictable path. If you are observant of this section it would do well to keep regular watch around it, take inputs from it, evaluate and form your individual investing strategy which suits you taking your suitability and risk profile in mind.
Different time periods in markets have different opportunities to offer. Sometimes – Rotation between different sectors in play, sometime deep value pocket of the market starts gaining momentum, sometimes overall texture of the market starts deteriorating, sometime risk reward is placed with tremendous odd with small cap & mid cap and sometime large cap is hugely discounted,or some sector which has been in correction mode is all set to go up.
This section is usually triggered once a month( that’s the minimum observation we like to do). However, this can be triggered on any event materializing on political, geopolitical, budgetary allocation policy , regulatory, industry change etc.
Bottom line- – markets are dynamic and no one particular style of investing works well in all markets.
It is not a recommendation to BUY or Sell any particular investment – but acts as a light post which we would like our investors to know as in which direction to look at.